About The Macro

The Macro is a thesis-driven macro analysis platform. Instead of reacting to daily headlines, we focus on identifying and tracking long-term structural shifts in the global economy. Each thesis represents a directional view backed by data, and every thesis is scored for confidence so you can see at a glance how conviction is evolving over time.

Our approach is built on three pillars: theses, confidence scoring, and open questions. Together they form a transparent framework for thinking about where the world economy is heading and what that means for investors.

Thesis-Driven Analysis

Every thesis starts with a clear, falsifiable claim about a macro trend — for example, that gold is reasserting itself as a reserve currency or that a global defense spending supercycle is underway. We then identify the key indicators that would confirm or deny the thesis, lay out the bull and bear cases, and surface the open questions whose resolution will move the needle on confidence.

How Confidence Scores Work

Each thesis carries a confidence score from 0 to 100. The score reflects a weighted assessment across several dimensions:

• Indicator alignment — Are the key economic and market indicators moving in the direction the thesis predicts? Each indicator has a weight that reflects its importance to the thesis.
• Open question resolution — As pivotal questions get answered (through policy changes, data releases, or geopolitical developments), the confidence score adjusts. Each question has a pre-defined impact range for bullish and bearish resolutions.
• Signal direction — Indicators are tagged as positively or negatively correlated with the thesis, so the scoring engine knows whether a rising value confirms or undermines the view.

Scores above 65 indicate high confidence, 40–65 moderate confidence, and below 40 low confidence. These thresholds help you quickly gauge the strength of each macro thesis without diving into every data point.

Open Questions

Markets move on uncertainty, and we make that uncertainty explicit. Each thesis lists the open questions whose resolution could meaningfully shift the outlook. For each question we document the expected impact on confidence under both a bullish and bearish resolution, along with any current evidence. This lets you see exactly what would change our view and by how much.