VIX up 70.55% to 27

Macro Summary

Current signals suggest a late-cycle environment with elevated stagflation risk. Inflation remains sticky while growth decelerates, creating headwinds for growth equities and long-duration bonds. Defensive positioning and real asset exposure appear warranted.

Regime Signals

Last 6 months
Stagflation Risk

CPI sticky + GDP slowing

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CPI+211.4%
GDP Growth-64.1%
Late Cycle

Unemployment at lows + spreads widening

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Unemployment+4.8%
VIX-10.9%
Significant Moves

CPI running hot — comparing to Fed policy rate response

themacro.app
CPI+3.7%
Fed Funds Rate-24.6%

VIX spiking — watching equity market impact

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VIX+10.2%
S&P 500+19.5%

Macro Dashboard

Last 6 months

Trending Bullish

6

Russell 2000

2,496

3.76%
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US 10Y Yield

4.15%

3.49%
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Trending Bearish

3

2Y/10Y Spread

0.57%

21.28%
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CPI YoY

327.5%

46.81%
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Mixed

3

S&P 500

6,689

1.11%
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NASDAQ

22,369

0.09%
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